Txij thaum nruab nrabLub Kaum Ob Hlis, tau muaj qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov nqi txhuas, nrog Shanghai aluminium rebounding ze li ntawm 8.6% los ntawm qhov qis ntawm 18,190 yuan / ton, thiab
LME aluminium nce los ntawm qhov siab ntawm 2,109 US dollars / ton rau 2,400 US dollars / ton.Ntawm ib sab, qhov no yog vim kev lag luam kev lag luam kev xav zoo
hais txog US Federal Reserve cov paj laum txiav cov kev cia siab, thiab ntawm qhov tod tes, tau muaj qhov nce siab vim qhov nce nqi ntawm alumina ntau lawm txiav los ntawm Hiav Txwv Liab.Qhov no nce hauv Shanghai txhuas tau tawg los ntawm kev hloov pauv
ntau yam tsim ntau tshaj li ib xyoos, nrog LME txhuas qhia piv rau qhov tsis muaj zog.Lub lim tiam dhau los, raws li qee cov tuam txhab alumina rov pib dua
ntau lawm, easing muab kev txhawj xeeb, ob qho tib si alumina thiab aluminium nqi tau ntsib ib tug me ntsis retraction.
1. Bauxite ore Supply shortcuts tseem yuav txwv tsis pub Alumina Production Capacity tso tawm
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm domestic bauxite ore, cov nqi khiav hauj lwm ntawm mines yog ib txwm tsis tshua muaj nyob rau lub caij ntuj no.Ib qho kev sib tsoo mine hauv Shanxi thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tas los ua rau ntau lub mines hauv zos raug ncua
ntau lawm rau kev tshuaj xyuas thiab kho, tsis muaj kev cia siab tias yuav rov pib dua hauv lub sijhawm luv luv.Sanmenxia mine hauv Henan tseem tsis tau tshaj tawm txog kev rov pib dua, nrog
txo ore tso zis hauv Pingdingshan.Muaj tsawg dua mines tshiab qhib hauv Guizhou, thiab bauxite ore mov yuav tsum nyob twj ywm nruj rau lub sijhawm ntev, uas yuav txhawb nqa cov nqi alumina.Hais txog imported ore, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov
roj mov tsis txaus vim Guinea roj depot tawg txuas ntxiv, feem ntau cuam tshuam txog cov nqi roj ntxiv rau cov tuam txhab mining thiab nce nqi thauj khoom hiav txwv.
Tam sim no, nws yog lub sijhawm siab tshaj plaws rau Guinea ore xa khoom.Raws li SMM, lub lim tiam dhau los alumina ore xa los ntawm Guinea muaj txog 2.2555 lab tons,
nce ntawm 392,900 tons ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los 1.8626 lab tons.Qhov xwm txheej ntxhov siab hauv Hiav Txwv Liab tau txwv tsis pub muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev thauj mus los ntawm alumina ore,
Raws li ib ncig ntawm xya caum feem pua ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov alumina ore ntshuam los ntawm Guinea, thiab kev xa khoom los ntawm Guinea thiab Australia tsis hla Hiav Txwv Liab.
Qhov cuam tshuam tuaj yeem hnov ntawm ib feem me me ntawm alumina ore kev thauj mus los ntawm Turkey.
aluminium profileVim tsis txaus ntawm alumina ore mov thiab kev txwv ib puag ncig, muaj kev poob qis hauv alumina ntau lawm ua ntej.Raws li Aladdin, txog rau hnub Friday dhau los, kev ua haujlwm muaj peev xwm ntawm alumina yog 81.35 lab tons, nrog rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm 78.7%, pom tias qis dua li ib txwm muaj 84-87 lab tons hauv ib nrab xyoo.Alumina cov nqi tau nce ntxiv nrog rau cov nqi yav tom ntej.Hnub Friday dhau los, qhov chaw tus nqi hauv cheeb tsam Henan yog 3,320 yuan / tuj, nce 190 yuan / ton ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los.Cov nqi muag khoom hauv cheeb tsam Shanxi tau nce los ntawm 180 yuan rau 3,330 yuan / tuj piv rau lub lim tiam dhau los.Lub lim tiam dhau los, nrog kev txhim kho huab cua zoo hauv qee qhov chaw ntawm Shandong thiab Henan thiab tshem tawm cov huab cua huab cua hnyav, ntau lub tuam txhab alumina rov pib tsim khoom, ntau yam khoom muaj rau kev xa khoom.Ib lub tuam txhab loj hauv cheeb tsam Shanxi uas txo nws cov peev xwm ntau lawm vim muaj teeb meem calcination kuj tseem rov ua haujlwm, nrog rau qee lub tuam txhab, uas qhia tias qhov xwm txheej nruj rau cov khoom alumina hauv lub sijhawm luv luv tuaj yeem txhim kho.Txawm li cas los xij, qhov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom tsis txaus ore yuav tsum tau muab kev txhawb nqa rau cov nqi alumina nyob rau lub sijhawm nruab nrab.
2. Cov nqi nce ntxiv thiab cov txiaj ntsig zoo rau Aluminium Electrolysis
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov nqi rau aluminium electrolysis, ib sab ntawm qhov tseem ceeb ntawm alumina nqi, cov nqi hluav taws xob thiab cov dej qab zib caustic tau nyob ruaj khov.Thaum pib ntawm lub hli, ib lub tuam txhab muaj npe nrov hauv tsev tau txo qis nws cov nqi sib tw rau txhuas fluoride, uas ua rau txo qis ntawm cov nqi pauv hauv kev lag luam aluminium fluoride.Zuag qhia tag nrho, SMM kwv yees tias thaum pib lub Ib Hlis, tag nrho cov nqi ntawm txhuas electrolysis mus txog 16,600 yuan ib tuj, nce 320 yuan ib tuj los ntawm ib ncig ntawm 16,280 yuan ib tuj nyob rau hauv nruab nrab lub Kaum Ob Hlis xyoo tas los.Nrog rau qhov sib npaug ntawm tus nqi ntawm aluminium electrolysis, cov txiaj ntsig rau electrolytic aluminium lag luam kuj pom muaj qee qhov nce.
3. Kev txo qis me ntsis hauv Aluminium Electrolysis ntau lawm thiab cov khoom muag qis
Raws li National Bureau of Statistics, txij lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom tsim hluav taws xob hluav taws xob ntau yog 38 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 3.9%.Cov zis thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis poob me ntsis rau 3.544 lab tons, feem ntau yog vim muaj kev txwv tsis pub siv hluav taws xob hauv cheeb tsam Yunnan.Raws li tau tshaj tawm los ntawm Mysteel, txog rau thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis Ntuj kawg, Tuam Tshoj tus tsim hluav taws xob txhuas muaj peev xwm yog 45.0385 lab tons, nrog kev ua haujlwm muaj peev xwm ntawm 42.0975 lab tons thiab kev siv peev xwm ntawm 93.47%, txo qis ntawm 2.62% ntawm lub hli.Nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis, Tuam Tshoj tus ntshuam ntawm raw aluminium yog 194,000 tons, me ntsis tsawg dua nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis, tab sis tseem nyob rau theem siab.
Raws li lub Ib Hlis 5, cov khoom lag luam txhuas ntawm Shanghai Futures Exchange yog 96,637 tons, txuas ntxiv qhov kev poob qis thiab tseem nyob rau theem qis piv rau tib lub sijhawm hauv xyoo dhau los.Daim ntawv tso cai ntim yog 38,917 tons, muab qee yam kev txhawb nqa rau cov nqi yav tom ntej.Raws li Lub Ib Hlis 4, Mysteel tau tshaj tawm tias cov khoom lag luam sib raug zoo ntawm electrolytic aluminium yog 446,000 tons, 11.3 txhiab tons qis dua tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, qhia tias tag nrho cov chaw ncig hauv tsev tseem nyob nruj.Muab cov kev ua haujlwm qis qis qis ua ntej Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav thiab qhov kev cia siab yuav txo qis hauv kev hloov pauv ntawm cov dej txhuas los ntawm cov lag luam electrolytic aluminium, cov khoom lag luam aluminium ingot yuav nrawm dua nyob rau ib nrab ntawm Lub Ib Hlis.Thaum Lub Ib Hlis 5, LME cov khoom lag luam txhuas tau sawv ntawm 558,200 tons, nce me ntsis los ntawm nws nruab nrab Lub Kaum Ob Hlis qis, tab sis tseem nyob rau theem qis tag nrho, me ntsis siab dua tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los.Qhov ntim ntawm cov ntawv txais nyiaj hauv tsev yog 374,300 tons, nrog rau kev rov qab sai dua me ntsis.Daim ntawv cog lus ntawm LME txhuas qhov chaw pom me ntsis contango, qhia tias qhov chaw muab khoom tsis pom qhov nruj heev.
4. Txo qhov xav tau Trend ua ntej Suav Xyoo Tshiab
Raws li SMM, tom qab New Yeay's Day, cov khoom lag luam txhuas txhuas nkag mus rau hauv cov khoom ntim ceev ceev.Raws li Lub Ib Hlis 4th, cov khoom lag luam txhuas txhuas hauv tsev tau nce mus txog 82,000 tons, nce ntawm 17,900 tons piv rau hnub Thursday dhau los.Kev tuaj txog ntawm cov khoom lag luam thaum hnub so, kev ua haujlwm qis qis qis ua ntej Suav Xyoo Tshiab, thiab qib siab ntawm cov nqi txhuas uas cuam tshuam cov kev yuav khoom hauv qab, yog cov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom muag.Hauv thawj lub lim tiam ntawm 2024, kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm cov thawj coj hauv tsev aluminium profile lag luam txuas ntxiv tsis muaj zog, ntawm 52.7%, nrog rau ib lub lim tiam-rau-lub lim tiam ntawm 2.1%.Qee lub tsev profile ntau lawm tus nqi thiab kev txiav txim tsis kam, thaum ua cov tuam txhab tsheb profile tseem nyob ntawm qhov kev ua haujlwm siab.Kev lag luam photovoltaic profile ntsib kev sib tw hnyav, thiab kev txiav txim ntim kuj poob.Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg, qhov nce xyoo-rau-xyoo kev txo qis hauv thaj chaw tsim kho tshiab thiab thaj chaw tsim kho txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Kaum Ib Hlis tau pom tias muaj kev txhim kho marginal, tab sis qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev muag khoom thaum kawg cov neeg siv khoom tseem tsis muaj zog.Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023, Tuam Tshoj lub tsheb tsim thiab muag khoom tiav 3.093 lab thiab 2.97 lab units, raws li kev sau npe xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 29.4% thiab 27.4%, qhia txog kev loj hlob sai.
5. Ib puag ncig me me sab nrauv Macroeconomic
Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau khaws cov txiaj ntsig txiaj ntsig tsis hloov pauv thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis lub rooj sib tham, nrog Powell tso tawm dovish cov cim qhia, hais tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tab tom txiav txim siab thiab sib tham txog kev txiav cov paj laum tsim nyog, thiab qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm kev txiav cov nqi tau nkag mus rau hauv kev txiav txim siab.Raws li kev cia siab rau kev txiav cov nqi nce ntxiv, kev xav hauv kev lag luam tseem muaj kev cia siab zoo, thiab tsis muaj qhov cuam tshuam loj ntawm macroeconomic yam xav tau nyob rau lub sijhawm luv.US dollar Performance index rov qab qis dua 101, thiab US daim ntawv cog lus yields kuj poob.Cov lus ceeb toom los ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis lub rooj sib tham tau tshaj tawm tom qab tsis zoo li lub rooj sib tham yav dhau los cov kev xav, thiab cov ntaub ntawv tsis yog kev ua liaj ua teb zoo nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis kuj tau txhawb nqa lub tswv yim tias txoj cai txwv tsis pub nyiaj txiag yuav txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv.Txawm li cas los xij, qhov no tsis cuam tshuam qhov kev cia siab ntawm peb qhov kev txiav nyiaj hauv 2024. Ua ntej Suav Xyoo Tshiab, qhov kev poob qis tam sim ntawd hauv thaj chaw macroeconomic tsis zoo li tshwm sim.Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsim PMI nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis poob los ntawm 0.4% mus rau 49%, qhia txog qhov tsis muaj zog hauv kev tsim khoom thiab kev xav tau ntsuas.Ntawm lawv, qhov kev txiav txim tshiab tau txo qis los ntawm 0.7% mus rau 48.7%, uas qhia tias lub hauv paus rau kev lag luam rov qab los hauv tsev tseem yuav tsum tau ua kom muaj zog.
Post lub sij hawm: Jan-22-2024